This spring 2021 edition of the World Bank's MENA Economic Update estimates that the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) economies contracted by 3.8 percent in 2020, 1.3 percentage points higher than the World Bank's October 2020 projection; however, the regional growth estimate is 6.4 percentage points lower than the pre-pandemic growth forecast published in October 2019.
The estimated cumulative cost of the pandemic, in terms of lost gross domestic product (GDP), will be US$227 billion by the end of 2021. The MENA region is expected to see only a partial recovery by 2021, but this recovery depends in part on the equitable distribution of vaccines.
The substantial borrowing that MENA governments have done to finance health and social protection measures has increased public debt. Countries must continue to spend on health and income transfers, adding to an already high debt burden and leadin
g to complicated policy choices as the pandemic recedes.
